Sources everywhere are reporting that Barack Obama’s poll numbers are surging, and John McCain’s are slipping. Increasingly, it’s looking like McCain is in an irreparable decline. The news is so ubiquitous that I’m only going to link to the MSNBC/New York Times article on the subject and let readers find more reports for themselves. Obama is now opening his lead, so narrow a few weeks ago, into the double digits, including in some states that were once held to be solidly red.
It’s tempting to say that this is because the failing economy is now in the news spotlight, and people (rightly) have more confidence in Obama’s ability to manage that than McCain’s. This is true, but it’s only part of a more complicated equation.
McCain made himself look the fool in his stunt last week regarding the bailout plan. Indeed, this leadership failure makes him look so inept that one is forced to wonder if it didn’t happen by some sly backroom machination orchestrated by the Obama campaign, the DNC, or some other Democratic group. A Presidential candidate can be self-depreciating, but he can’t seem inept, and McCain does right now.
Too, there are deepening concerns about Sarah Palin’s qualifications to be Vice President; criticism even from the right that she’s not ready, polls indicating rapidly shrinking public confidence in her abilities, and the astonishingly awkward Katie Couric interview, which has gotten so much press primarily because the McCain campaign has so tightly restricted media access to her. If she does fewer interviews, those she does do take on greater importance and higher visibility, and she botched the CBS job.
It must be remembered that the McCain campaign picked Couric to do the interview precisely because she’s known for a soft touch. Yet Palin was unable to answer, and indeed stammered over or evaded, basic questions like “what Supreme Court decisions have you disagreed with?” and “what newspapers or magazines do you read to keep up with national and world affairs?” It’s possible (indeed, likely) that the campaign stuffed her head so full of facts that she couldn’t keep it organized in her head, and thus stumbled over basic but unanticipated questions. Again, if you didn’t know better, you’d swear Palin answers had been scripted by the Obama camp – she could not possibly have come off seeming more evasive and…. stupid than she did.
While I happen to think that Palin is totally unprepared for her role and would make an abominably bad President (and, let’s face it, none of her most ardent supporters are voting for her for VP – they’re hoping the ticket wins and McCain dies,) I am certain that she is not actually stupid. She’s the newly-elected governor of a small, geographically isolated state that hadn’t even found her footing in a gubernatorial role yet. She was already cramming her head with facts about how to run Alaska, likely from the well-informed pages of The New American. McCain’s people have given her even more to swallow. She is in an unfortunate and in many ways unfair position, but it was McCain’s ill-advised choice that put her there.
McCain’s issue is judgement. He has tons of experience and a strong personal narrative, but all the experience in the world doesn’t help if you make idiotic decisions, and McCain has a decades-long history of that. The Obama campaign has pressed this a bit, but probably not enough – but the choice of Palin as VP is looking like a worse decision with each passing day. That and the bailout fiasco of last week are dooming his campaign. It may even have gotten to the point where even another risky move cannot save it – if he does something else that a couple of months ago would have been perceived as ‘bold’, will it now look to the public like another transparent stunt by a desperate candidate? If his campaign isn’t at that point yet, it’s teetering on the very brink.
McCain was on his back gong into the Republican National Convention – he had to do something spectacular and surprising to regain some momentum, and he did with the Palin pick. But the sunshine’s gone away now, and it increasingly looks like the only people who will vote for McCain because they believe in Palin are a small number of fundamentalists who see nothing wrong with abjurations against witchcraft, speaking in tongues or the hastening of the End Times. In that choice, McCain made the election about Palin rather than himself, and that was clearly a mistake.
The McCain camp seems to be reacting to his downward spiral in the polls by going on the attack again, talking up the connections between, for example, Obama and Jeremiah Wright, who is, to my mind, far less crazy or controversial than, say, radical cleric and hatemonger John Hagee, whose support McCain has no difficulty embracing. McCain has gotten some traction with this kind of stuff in the past (and indeed, fabricated facts and scare tactics worked well for his team back when they were trying to get George Bush elected,) but it may be too late for that now – Obama controls the campaign narrative that thoroughly.